FEDERAL FUND RATE AND GEOMAGNETIC INDEX Ap CYCLES (1955–2024)
Абстракт
The paper uses a methodological approach based on W. S. Jevons and A. L. Chizhevsky. The years of solar cycles were numbered according to the order established in solar astrophysics, grouped and compared with the arithmetic mean values of the effective US federal funds rates and the geomagnetic index Ap. The Fed rate is minimal either in the year of the geomagnetic index Ap extremum (this is the first year of the solar cycle) or in the year following it (these are the seventh and twelfth years of the solar cycle) as a reaction to the Ap index extremum. The forecast value of the effective federal funds rate for 2025 is 3.92%, and for 2026 it is 2.81%.
JEL класификация
Как да се цитира
Литература (библиография)
Chizhevskij, A. (1976). Zemnoe ekho solnechnyh bur'. Moskva: Izdatel'stvo „Mysl'“ [Чижевский, А. (1976). Земное эхо солнечных бурь. Москва: Издательство „Мысль“] (in Russian).
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2025, February). Economic data. Effective Federal Funds Rate. Available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Gurfinkel', Yu. (2012, June). Fiziologicheskie i patofiziologicheskie aspekty vliyaniya solnechnoj aktivnosti na organizm cheloveka. [Гурфинкель, Ю. (2012, Июнь). Физиологические и патофизиологические аспекты влияния солнечной активности на организм человека] (in Russian). Available at http://swh2012.cosmos.ru/ru/content/sbornik-tezisov
Jevons, W. S. (1882, July 6). The solar-commercial cycles. Nature, February 2025. Potsdam Helmholtz Center. 226–228. Available at https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/kpdata?startdate=1932-01-01&enddate=2024-12-11&format=avgap#kpdatadownload-143
Valentinov, A. (2004). Magnitnye buri i shtili vredny pri obluchenii bol'nyh rakom. Rossijskaya gazeta, March 19. [Валентинов, A. (2004) Магнитные бури и штили вредны при облучении больных раком. Росси́йская газе́та, 19 марта] (in Russian). Available at https://rg.ru/2004/03/19/magnit.html
Walsh, B. (1993,). Economic Cycles and Changes in the Earth Geomagnetic Field. Cycles, May, 76–80.
World Data Center for the production, preservation and dissemination of the international sunspot number. Sunspot Number. Yearly mean total sunspot number [1700–now]. (2025, February). Available at https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/datafiles