Methods for Forecasting the Business Cycle

• Roumen Vesselinov

  University of Veliko Tarnovo "St. St. Cyril and Methodius

  Author

The main aim of the undertaking is to define and implement a methodology for forecasting the business cycle and particularly the leading composite indicator. This methodology consolidates some elements recognized in the literature with some new elements of estimating and ranging of forecasts. It uses all the effective information from the numerous forecasts and synthesises them into one combined forecast.

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